The tropical Pacific is experiencing a combination of atmospheric and oceanic factors that are pushing the 2026 El Niño event toward historic levels. Recent data shows an unprecedented acceleration in the phenomenon's growth, with surface temperature anomalies exceeding 5 degrees Celsius above average and a subsurface warm core peaking at over 9 degrees. This configuration, dubbed the "Super El Niño," is already altering global circulation and preparing to significantly impact the autumn and winter seasons in the United States, Canada, and Europe.

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Record westerly winds fuel the Kelvin Wave

The engine behind this rapid intensification lies in an unprecedented collapse of trade winds. Analysis from the past two months reveals the strongest low-level westerly wind anomalies recorded in 86 years of data. These winds have generated a subsurface Kelvin Wave that transports heat eastward, driving the increase in ocean temperatures. The persistence of these atmospheric conditions suggests the phenomenon will continue to strengthen through winter, with available thermal energy far exceeding that observed in previous events.

69% probability of a record-breaking event

International meteorological agencies are continuously updating their forecasts. The US Climate Prediction Center estimates a 69% probability that the current El Niño will surpass the strength of all previously recorded events. The European ECMWF model also projects record anomalies, while Berkeley Earth notes that July 2026 was the second warmest month on record. Analysis by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather indicates a 95% probability that the combination of this El Niño and anthropogenic warming will make 2027 the hottest year ever measured.

Seasonal impacts and global risks

The transition toward an extreme El Niño is modifying the jet stream, creating an "atmospheric highway" that favors milder conditions in the north but intense storm activity in the southern United States. For Italy and the rest of Europe, projections indicate a potentially milder-than-average winter. However, the event is occurring within a context of global energy and agricultural crisis: according to experts, the combined impact with current tensions on fertilizers and energy could significantly amplify risks for global food security, requiring anticipatory action from governments.