The data center boom in Texas could bring air pollution back to levels last seen in the 2000s, erasing two decades of improvements in just a few years. That is the conclusion of a new report from the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC), which modeled how new facilities would affect the state's power system. Texas has become the physical heart of the infrastructure behind generative AI.
How developers and utilities meet the enormous electricity demand will determine how dirty the air gets. According to the study, if all planned data center projects connected to the Texas grid and were powered by the anticipated grid mix, soot and smog-forming pollutants would climb sharply within five years, wiping out decades of progress.
In the worst scenario, emissions from the power sector would more than triple, reaching their highest level since 2006. Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which form smog, would rise 136 percent, approaching 2004 levels. Carbon dioxide, which heats the planet, would climb 90 percent above 2025 levels.
The outcome is not fixed. HARC modeled three different projections for data center demand, and many proposed projects are speculative and may never be built. Developers can limit the impact by building solar and wind farms on site, which could cut NOx emissions by up to tenfold. But if they build gas engines on site to avoid long grid connection waits, the opposite could happen, producing the highest pollution levels possible. On-site natural gas engines emit about four times as much nitrogen oxide as grid power for the same data center.
Texas already leads the country in data center capacity, with 26 gigawatts existing or under construction. A separate Wood Mackenzie analysis published in March found it also has four times more proposed capacity running on on-site power than any other state. The study counts at least 32 natural gas plants planned in Texas, more than any other state.
"There is a good chance that our children and grandchildren will breathe dirtier air than we did," said John Hall, HARC's CEO. "The transportation sector, the state, and other stakeholders have been working for decades to bring these numbers down, and that progress is now at risk."
The issue comes as President Donald Trump proposes that companies pay local communities an energy "dividend" to make data centers more acceptable, with excess electricity given or sold back to residents.
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