The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C to avoid the most dangerous consequences of climate change is officially dead. In a report released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the organization admits that, on its current emissions trajectory, the planet is headed for a warming of about 1.8 °C above pre-industrial levels this century.
This marks a significant shift in narrative: after years of maintaining that the 1.5 °C window was still open, the UN now concedes that the threshold will be breached "within the next few years." This admission follows data showing that global average temperatures in 2024 already surpassed the limit for the first time, compounding risks associated with extreme weather and tipping points in critical ecosystems.
The Overshoot Strategy: A Path Back to Safety
Since preventing the breach is no longer possible, UN officials are recommending a strategy known as overshoot. The goal is to limit the peak temperature—ideally no higher than 1.8 °C—and then reverse course to bring temperatures back down below 1.5 °C by the end of the century.
This "hump-shaped" path involves a period of increased warming followed by gradual cooling. However, experts warn that this will mean decades of intensified weather-related disasters, rising sea levels, and mass extinctions. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen stated that while this is not a "safe world," it is safer than remaining above 1.5 °C in the long term.
The Gap Between Pledges and Policy
The report highlights a stark contrast between ambitious targets and actual government action. While full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would lead to warming between 2.3 °C and 2.5 °C, current funded policies put the world on track for 2.8 °C by 2100.
To make a return to 1.5 °C possible after the overshoot, governments would need to slash annual emissions by 55% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. The UN emphasizes that carbon removal technologies can only play a limited role and cannot substitute for aggressive cuts in fossil fuel use. Secretary-General António Guterres urged an "overshoot of ambition," calling the fight for 1.5 degrees a struggle for humanity's survival.
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